The Week in Multilateralism
Friday, August 30 2024
Rising Tides and Tempers at the Pacific Islands Forum
Meetings of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) have often been relatively sleepy multilateral affairs. No longer. Climate change, the threat of associated sea-level rise, and U.S.-China competition ensure that the organization’s annual confabs attract media attention and high-level representation. The Associated Press reported on this year’s session:
For the first few decades of the forum’s existence, the annual meetings of its leaders largely escaped wider notice. In recent years that has changed, regular forum-goers say: China’s campaign of aid, diplomacy and security agreements with leaders across the Pacific has prompted a rapid expansion of the size and scope of the organization and its meetings.
The group began meeting in the early 1970s and now has 18 members, including Australia, the Cook Islands, Nauru, New Zealand, Palau, and Samoa. Largely an intergovernmental forum, PIF also has a modest secretariat, currently led by the former president of Nauru, Baron Waqa. Recently, the organization crafted a “2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent,” which emphasizes environmental protection and sustainable economic development.
Climate change had center stage for much of this year’s session. Reprising a recurrent role, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres sounded the alarm:
The decisions world leaders take in the coming years will determine the fate, first of Pacific Islanders – but also of everyone else. In other words: If we save the Pacific, we save the world.
Meanwhile, on the margins of the session, officials from Australia and Tuvalu exchanged words about the former’s commitment to transitioning away from fossil fuels. Saudi Arabia’s climate envoy also reportedly made an appearance.
Geopolitical tension hovered over the event as well. A large Chinese delegation attended, and the U.S. team was led by heavy-hitter Kurt Campbell, the deputy secretary of state. Plans for a regional policing initiative announced during the session had an unmistakable geopolitical flavor:
According to Mihai Sora of the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based think tank, Wednesday's announcement was a diplomatic victory for Australia and for the Pacific Islands Forum, a regional bloc which had appeared deeply divided on the topic.
China's Pacific allies -- most notably Vanuatu and Solomon Islands -- had voiced concern that the policing plan represented a "geo-strategic denial security doctrine", designed to box out Beijing.
While all members of the forum have endorsed the deal in principle, national leaders will have to decide how much they participate, if at all.
As has often been the case in regional multilateralism, the status of Taiwan became a point of contention. A deputy foreign minister from Taiwan attended, and a Chinese official reportedly expressed anger that the group continued to recognize Taiwan as a “development partner.”
Steppe-ing Out: Putin Takes His Arrest Warrant on the Road
Russian president Vladimir Putin is reportedly headed for Mongolia, a member state of the International Criminal Court (ICC). Putin is the subject of an ICC arrest warrant for alleged war crimes committed during the Ukraine war, and the Rome Statute obliges member states to respect existing warrants.
There are relatively few ICC members in Asia, but Mongolia joined the court early, submitting ratification documents in April 2002. Mongolia’s long-standing membership notwithstanding, the BBC reports that Putin has “no worries” about the visit.
There’s precedent for leaders charged by the ICC pushing at the limits of court authority. Last year, Putin himself considered traveling to South Africa for a BRICS session, but he ultimately participated remotely. And more than a decade ago, Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir was a pioneer in challenging ICC arrest warrants. He traveled to several ICC states, including Chad, Kenya, and Malawi. Bashir’s peregrinations did ultimately produce some drama; he made a hurried exit from South Africa after a court there ordered the government to arrest him.
The court and its members have limited options for responding when a country fails to arrest a suspect. The prosecutor’s office can complain, and the judges can make a finding of noncompliance. If there is enough political support, the court’s members could even pass a resolution criticizing the failure to arrest. But if the bilateral payoff of the trip is significant enough, that’s a potential price Mongolia might well be willing to pay.
Sea Change at the International Seabed Authority?
One of the most intriguing recent multilateral leadership contests took place this year at the International Seabed Authority (ISA). In early August, Leticia Carvalho prevailed over the incumbent Michael Lodge in a race to lead the organization.
The Jamaica-based ISA was created by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and is responsible for managing commercial uses of the deep seabed. All but dormant for much of its existence, the ISA has sprung to life in recent years as undersea mining inches toward commercial viability. The island nation of Nauru, working with The Metals Company, has sought to accelerate the process.
But the prospect of commercial mining has generated fierce controversy, with some member states and many influential environmental organizations calling for a moratorium, at least until the environmental impact is better understood. That debate fed into sharp criticism of the Lodge, who was perceived as a zealous advocate of commercial mining.
Carvalho has a quite different profile. She’s from Brazil, while he is British. She’s an oceanographer by training, while Lodge is a lawyer. In recent interviews, Carvalho has expressed a desire to rebuild confidence in the ISA as a regulator:
"For me it became quite clear that the primary issue is the governance of the ISA itself. There is a need for me, quite clearly, to rebuild trust," Carvalho said.
"I don't want to criticize anyone or any individual specifically, but I think the reality of the facts is that there is a lot of transparency and accountability to be put in place."
The incoming secretary general has also said that she would be willing to investigate the conduct of the man she is succeeding.
But Carvalho will soon face the same basic dilemma that defined Lodge’s tenure: the ISA’s raison d’être is managing seabed mining (and its long-term financing depends on revenue from undersea mining). The organization has no incentive to shut down the proto-industry that justifies its existence.
New Faces at the Fund
The International Monetary Fund is ready to add a new member to its top ranks. IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva this week announced her intention to appoint Jamaican national Nigel Clarke as deputy managing director, to replace the outgoing Antoinette Sayeh. An Oxford-trained economist, Clarke served in several senior positions in the Jamaican government. In the Financial Times, Robin Wigglesworth offered this take:
Clarke is also very much the IMF type: a smooth, cerebral and technocratic Rhodes scholar with a PhD from Oxford. However, first-hand experience as finance minister of a programme country is clearly why he got the gig of deputy MD. Naturally, Jamaican prime minister Andrew Holness is claiming it as a big win for his administration, the country, and the Caribbean. Which is fair enough, because not long ago the suggestion that a former Jamaican finance minister would hold one of the top IMF jobs would have seen you laughed out of 700 19th Street.
Clarke’s appointment would produce a top IMF management team that looks like this:
Managing Director: Kristalina Georgieva (Bulgaria)
First Deputy Managing Director: Gita Gopinath (US and India)1
Deputy Managing Director: Nigel Clarke (Jamaica)
Deputy Managing Director: Bo Li (China)
Deputy Managing Director: Kenji Okamura (Japan)
The nationality of Fund leadership has been controversial over the years. The longstanding tradition that a European heads the Fund and a U.S. national leads the World Bank has come in for particular criticism. But concern has extended to staffing more broadly. In 2022, several scholars wrote, “[t]he IMF and the World Bank have historically hired staff who overrepresent individuals from English-speaking, advanced industrialized countries relative to the broader population of their member states.”
Briefly Noted:
A team from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights will visit Bangladesh to discuss recent violence there.
A look at how ASEAN is helping Vietnam manage its complicated diplomacy.
UN officials are readying a polio vaccination campaign for Gaza. Meanwhile, the EU’s foreign policy chief asked member states to consider sanctions against several Israeli ministers.
In Foreign Policy, Paul Collier blasts the World Bank for missing the mark. Plus, the Bank pulls its advertising from X.
Testing, Testing: The World Health Organization wants rapid diagnostic tools to deal with mpox.
Veteran Kenyan politician Raila Odinga is seeking the chairmanship of the African Union commission.
Is Palestine considering joining the BRICS?
A call for the World Trade Organization to be less ambitious (and more effective).
The EU is awaiting a new top antitrust official.