The Week in Multilateralism
Friday, May 14, 2021
A New Pandemic Architecture
A multinational group of notables published its review of the world’s pandemic response. The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, which included former Liberian president Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf and Helen Clark, the former prime minister of New Zealand, examined the chronology of the outbreak in some detail. It placed particular emphasis on the World Health Organization’s role and the adequacy of the International Health Regulations:
The Panel’s conclusion is that the alert system does not operate with sufficient speed when faced with a fast-moving respiratory pathogen, that the legally binding [International Health Regulations] are a conservative instrument as currently constructed and serve to constrain rather than facilitate rapid action and that the precautionary principle was not applied to the early alert evidence when it should have been.
Looking forward, the panel landed on a compromise regarding the vexed question of whether to suspend intellectual property rights associated with covid vaccines and treatments:
The World Trade Organization and WHO [should] convene major vaccine-producing countries and manufacturers to get agreement on voluntary licensing and technology transfer arrangements for COVID-19 vaccines (including through the Medicines Patent Pool). If actions do not occur within three months, a waiver of intellectual property rights under the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights should come into force immediately.
The group also voiced support for a new treaty on pandemics and for the creation of a Global Health Threats Council, which would meet at the level of heads of state.
What’s the State of Multilateral Democracy Promotion?
Signs emerged this week that the Biden administration will not organize a planned Summit of Democracies this year. Alex Ward from Vox reported:
According to multiple US officials, the Biden administration is thinking of pushing the summit into at least 2022, citing concerns about hosting a large, in-person meeting of world leaders during a pandemic and the optics of such an event. The summit isn’t even on the president’s calendar yet, two sources said.
The summit had been one of the president’s pledges for his first year in office. Ward’s reporting suggests that the delay is the product of the pandemic. But it might also speak to the complexities involved in deciding which governments count as democratic and what deliverables a confab could yield.
For some observers skeptical of the idea in the first place, the delay will no doubt be welcome. But even if a democracy summit is on hold, there are several other multilateral fora serving as focal points for global democracy promotion. The most prominent of these is the G7, whose foreign ministers concluded a meeting last week. The group’s 12,000-word communique was shot through with calls to bolster liberal democracy. And Boris Johnson’s government has stated clearly its ambition to turn the G7 into a forum for leading democratic states, a role it has sought to amplify through invitations to several “guests”:
The Prime Minister’s ambition is to use the G7 to intensify cooperation between the world’s democratic and technologically advanced nations. To that end, he has invited leaders from Australia, India, South Korea and South Africa to attend as guest countries to deepen the expertise and experience around the table. Between them the 11 leaders represent over 60% of the people living in democracies around the world.
Outside the G7, other mechanisms are in motion. The Governing Council of the Community of Democracies recently met and issued an outcome statement focused on women’s rights and democracy. And the Copenhagen Democracy Summit just wrapped up. An initiative spurred by former NATO secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the summit featured participation by several heads of state and senior ministers as well as a collection of other prominent officials and activists.
The Security Council, the Court, and the Middle East Crisis
As violence intensified in Israel and Palestine, the UN Security Council struggled to say anything about the crisis. The United States reportedly blocked what it described as an “unhelpful” statement drafted by several Council members. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken framed the move as one designed to allow more effective mediation:
Blinken said on Thursday he hoped waiting a few days would allow for “diplomacy to have some effect and to see if indeed we get a real de-escalation,” adding that Washington was “open to and supportive of a discussion, an open discussion, at the United Nations."
In fending off the rest of the Council, at least for now, the Biden administration is sliding into the familiar United States posture of protecting Israel from what it views as biased draft statements and resolutions. (The Council will reportedly discuss the crisis again on Sunday.) If the Council’s deliberations are thus far following well worn patterns, there is at least one new element in play. The International Criminal Court has now initiated a full investigation of the situation in Palestine. And as the fighting intensified, ICC prosecutor Fatou Bensouda reminded the parties of that probe and her intent to examine the conduct of all sides.
At some point, this new ICC role may become part of Council deliberations, and it could even alter stagnant Council dynamics a bit. The Rome Statute gives the Council the power to defer investigations for up to a year, something the United States and a few other Council members might see as beneficial. But a deferral would require Council action rather than inaction, and it undoubtedly would have to be paired with other elements to win enough support for passage.
The WTO Leadership Team Takes Shape
New WTO director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is filling out her leadership team. She announced nominations for several deputy director general slots, including an American trade lawyer and a Chinese minister. Reuters offered some useful context on the identify and role of WTO deputies:
Traditionally, WTO deputies come from the United States, European Union, Asia and a developing country. An Indian candidate Mohan Kumar had challenged China's Zhang for the Asia post this time….
Henry Gao, a law professor at Singapore Management University, said that Zhang's selection shows China's growing importance within the body which it joined in 2001.
“The post is used for updating the DG on what major powers think. You really need to know what China thinks,” he said.
He added that the U.S. and Chinese appointments could provide a channel for the two countries to discuss trade matters.
The WTO leadership will have its hands full as it navigates the legal questions related to pandemic vaccines, facilitates the revival of the organization’s paralyzed dispute resolution system, and shepherds a new round of negotiations aimed at cutting fishing subsidies.
Briefly noted:
A group of nongovernmental organizations has urged the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to reject Brazil’s application for membership.
Myanmar’s military regime said it would only accept a visit from an ASEAN special envoy after “stability” has been restored.
The African Union is struggling to get member states to order the Johnson & Johnson vaccines it purchased.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres visited Moscow to discuss the state of multilateralism (and receive an honorary degree from Moscow State University).
With political tensions mounting, a European Union investment deal with China appears to be on hold.
The United States wants the Organization of American States to move fast on Haiti political turmoil.
Never-ending story: Argentina and the International Monetary Fund are talking about a new debt arrangement.
Germany and the World Health Organization announced the creation of a “Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence,” to be based in Berlin.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is bullish on the 2022 Winter Olympics in China.
Cuba complained that U.S. sanctions are keeping it from participating effectively in virtual multilateral meetings.