The Week in Multilateralism
Friday, September 20, 2024
All Together Now? This Year’s UN General Assembly
Turtle Bay is bracing for the spectacle of motorcades, traffic jams, and grip-and-grins that is the UN General Assembly. A planned Summit for the Future will take place September 22-23, followed by the regular Assembly meetings. A high-level meeting on sea level rise is also programmed. As heads of state and ministers descend on New York, here are a few of the questions circulating:
Does the Global Pact Have a Future? Secretary General Antonio Guterres had hoped that a planned “Pact for the Future” would be a centerpiece of this year’s gathering. But the auguries are unclear. Richard Gowan offers this assessment of where negotiations stand:
[T]alks on the main Pact for the Future – which has paragraphs on advancing almost every aspect of multilateralism imaginable – have been tense. Developing countries have pushed hard for the document to include pledges on reforming the World Bank and IMF to help them get easier access to financing. Richer states, led by the United States, have refused to offer truly significant concessions on this file. While this has been the single biggest headache, there have been small but persistent fights on other topics. Russia, which has been openly skeptical of the entire enterprise, has been most resistant to the Pact saying anything serious on nuclear disarmament. Major energy producers have gotten language on fossil fuels and climate change in the Pact watered down to the point that the formulations are often less ambitious than that in previous UN texts.
Lest readers despair, Gowan does point out that these byzantine multilateral declarations have a tendency to come together at the eleventh hour.
Can Security Council Reform Gain Steam? I noted last week that the Biden administration has come out in favor of two permanent Security Council seats for Africa. That announcement puts the superpower on board with the consensus African position about minimum acceptable level of representation on the Council. This week, Finland’s president added some Nordic backing to that plan (less plausibly, he called for the abolition of the single-state veto).
Any agreement remains a long way off, and the last few days provided a reminder that there is still no consensus within Africa about which countries merit those spots. Nigeria and South Africa have long been seen as the leading contenders. But in the wake of the U.S. announcement, there was some jostling for position. Via Julian Pecquet at The Africa Report:
While the US interest in sparking debate over long-awaited reforms has been well received, the specifics – who should benefit, whether permanent seats without veto power are worth it, and the financial burden of an expanded role – have triggered a spirited debate among African officials.
“The US offer — though welcome[d] — would turn the [African] Union into a club of two giants and 53 minnows, deepening division and fragmenting our collective intent,” former Kenyan envoy to the UN Martin Kimani wrote on X.
The friction within Africa about who might get new permanent seats replicates at the regional level the broader disunity within the UN membership about how to apportion the spoils of Council reform.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu Come to Town? With the Gaza war still simmering and all-out conflict with Hezbollah threatening, it has been unclear whether Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu would attend. Reports this week suggest that he does plan to be in New York for several full days.
Netanyahu will be entering a mostly hostile environment. The UN General Assembly just demanded that Israel comply with the International Court of Justice’s (non-binding) decision on Palestine by ending its occupation. Only fourteen countries (the United States included) opposed the resolution; another several dozen abstained. Lopsided General Assembly criticism is nothing new for Israeli leaders, of course, and Netanyahu would likely relish the chance to fire back at critics face-to-face. Nor is it just the General Assembly talking about Israel; the Security Council is convening this week to consider the strikes on Hezbollah via booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies.
Possibly more consequential for the prime minister’s travel plans is the state of play at the International Criminal Court (ICC). In May, chief prosecutor Karim Khan requested an arrest warrant for Netanyahu and defense minister Yoav Gallant (in addition to several Hamas leaders). Three judges at the court are still mulling that request and could issue a decision at any time. If they approve before the General Assembly meetings, Netanyahu would arrive with an international arrest warrant in tow. His attendance in that condition would likely not be an issue for the host country; the United States is not an ICC member and has no legal obligation to enforce the warrant. But it’s not clear how UN leaders and many national delegations would respond to Netanyahu’s presence.
Recruiting the EU’s College of Commissioners
Selecting a slate of European Commissioners has always been an intricate balancing act. All EU members are entitled to have a commissioner, but the European Commission president, currently Ursula von der Leyen, has the discretion to decide what individual lands what portfolio. (The European Parliament and the Council ultimately approve the slate of commissioners as a whole.)
After weeks of semi-public drama, von der Leyen has finally named her team. The list includes the EU’s first ever defense commissioner, a recognition of increased security threats in the neighborhood. For that position, von der Leyen tapped Lithuania’s Andrius Kubilius, a former prime minister and outspoken backer of Ukraine. As Politico noted, his remit will be more about galvanizing defense investment than coordinating military action:
While his new title sounds grand, the EU only plays a peripheral role in defense, an area where national capitals jealously guard their sovereignty. Instead of commanding armies, Kubilius will be in charge of better organizing the EU's fragmented defense industry and helping member countries rearm while continuing to ship crucial weapons to Ukraine.
Also of note: Spanish deputy prime minister Teresa Ribera was tapped to manage both the EU’s climate policy and the critical competition portfolio. She would succeed the Danish politician Margrethe Westager, who did battle in European courts with U.S. tech giants Apple and Google. El Pais reported this week that Ribera may want to loosen the EU’s merger rules.
Gender balance on the Commission was a recurrent theme in the months leading up to the unveiling. Von der Leyen’s proposed slate has eleven women, but getting to that level required arm twisting. She reportedly intervened with several member states to ask for changes and also urged member states to offer both a male and female nominee from which she could select. As the Guardian reported, “the request for two candidates was not welcomed by many EU capitals, as the prized job of EU commissioner is also part of complex negotiations between governing parties and/or prime ministers and presidents.”
While women comprise only forty percent of the overall proposed Commission—a slight dip from the last round—they would hold four of the six spots that carry the title of executive vice-president.
Four More Years in Geneva?
According to reports this week, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director general of the beleaguered World Trade Organization, is ready to serve another four years in her post. She took over the position in March 2021, after the Biden administration reversed the Trump team’s objections to her appointment. She spoke to Reuters about her plans:
Okonjo-Iweala admitted…the job was difficult and that geopolitical tensions among its 166 members was a significant challenge.
"It is tough, you know, very tough. There's no getting away from that. But it's also a job that makes me want to get out of bed in the morning," she told Reuters.
The veteran Nigerian diplomat’s tenure has seen continued stalemate at the Geneva-based organization on dispute resolution and other topics.
Okonjo-Iweala appears to have substantial support for reappointment, but there’s little reason to think her job will get any easier. No matter the outcome of the U.S. election, the atmosphere in Washington will likely remain frosty towards free trade. There’s no end in sight to Washington’s headlock on the organization’s appeals body. Meanwhile, Indian objections are stalling a deal designed to slash fisheries subsidies. (Writing in the Financial Times this week, Alan Beattie wondered if the middle powers can somehow save the world’s international trade system.)
Briefly Noted:
After sharp criticism, the International Monetary Fund has reportedly shelved its planned staff visit to Moscow. The IMF had argued that it was legally bound to conduct the consultation, but fierce opposition from several European states appears to have changed minds on 19th Street.
UN human rights experts conclude that Venezuela’s post-election crackdown amounts to a crime against humanity. The ICC has an open investigation of the situation in the country, but the prosecutor has been quiet recently about its status.
Wilmington, Delaware is preparing to host a Quad summit. A White House spokesperson this week described the group (comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the United States) as “more relevant than ever.”
Going Deep: A report examines complex undersea diplomacy between China, India, Sri Lanka, and the International Seabed Authority.
The International Atomic Energy Agency held its annual session, with plenty of talk about boosting civilian nuclear energy.
The head of the African Union’s health agency wants more investment in confronting mpox. In August, the World Health Organization designated mpox as a “public health emergency of international concern.”
Former Human Rights Watch director Kenneth Roth analyzes the U.S. hypocrisy problem as it defends a “rules-based order.”
Interpol and the South Korean government joined forces on a significant drug crackdown.
The World Health Organization and FIFA are putting theirs heads together to reduce sports-related concussions.