How international organizations die
I have always tried to impress upon my students the relative novelty and fragility of international organizations as a political phenomenon. A dozen years ago, that caution likely struck most students as hollow. And a lot of scholarship on the subject pointed to the durability of these organizations. For institutionally minded observers, this pointed to the generally welcome ability of formal organizations to insinuate themselves into international politics. Realists tended to either warn that dissolution was just around the corner (see the frequent predictions of NATO’s death after the Cold War) or to insist that the endurance of these organizations said nothing about their relevance.
The events of the past few years—and, in particular, the anti-global, populist push in several important countries—have made thinking about the death or decline of some organizations more urgent. I’ve argued elsewhere that the international architecture is pretty robust, and that the Trump administration is unlikely to dismantle it. But it’s impossible to ignore the travails of the World Trade Organization (whose dispute resolution system is now all but paralyzed) and the fragility of other new creations like the International Criminal Court (spurned by several leading powers and under sustained assault by the United States).
If one wants to think seriously about the death of international organizations, the work of Mette Eilstrup-Sangiovanni at the University of Cambridge is indispensable. In several recent articles, she has presented detailed empirical research on how and when multilateral organizations end. Her conclusions are complex, but she highlights several findings:
Global organizations (particularly those with heterogenous membership) are more durable than regional ones.
Organizations are particularly vulnerable during their first three or four decades of life.
Organizations succumb more often because of external shocks than internal decay. (According to her analysis, World War I killed off a number of organizations.)
Organizations with narrow and technical mandates seem to have higher survival rates than those with broader missions.
Employees of the International Telecommunications Union can take heart; those at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization may want to polish up their resumes.