Daily Multilateralism

Wednesday, November 18, 2020

• The Diplomat reports on a new Dutch policy paper urging a more robust European policy toward Chinese claims in the South China Sea and in defense of international maritime law:

  The new policy, which has not yet been published in English, reportedly calls on the European Union to speak out more strongly on the tensions in the South China Sea, where China has asserted its power to reinforce expansive maritime claims.

  “The EU should seek cooperation with countries in the region for free passage and guarantee maritime safety,” states the policy. “In that context, the EU must express itself more often and more strongly on developments in the South China Sea that violate the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.”

  The Dutch move is part of a broader international trend toward more directly challenging China’s maritime claims, including by bolstering the 2016 international ruling in favor of the Philippines.

• The United Nations General Assembly wrapped up its debate on Security Council reform. The session featured well-worn statements of established positions and did not appear to signal any new diplomatic movement. Council reform has been under consideration at the UN since the early 1990s and has moved through various procedural stages. But the essential political problem has remained constant: there is no consensus within the General Assembly about how to reform the Council and, in particular, whether to add new permanent members.

• Competitive multilateralism? The Economist reports [subscription required] on “Quad” diplomacy in Asia and explores possible tension between the emerging grouping (comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the United States) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has often seen itself a regional counterbalance to China:

  There is also some Quad-scepticism in the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN), where many governments are concerned that the four powers might overshadow an institution of ten mostly smaller ones. The idea of “ASEAN centrality” has wide appeal. But even there, attitudes have softened, not least because threat perceptions of China have grown. A survey of ASEAN policy elites by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in 2018 found that 69% thought that the Quad should “play a role in enforcing rules-based order”, for instance by ensuring freedom of navigation against Chinese maritime claims.

• A group of Israeli Knesset members braces for an International Criminal Court investigation into alleged Israeli war crimes:

  MK Michal Wunsh (Blue and White), the Knesset’s official representative to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, said, “In the event that the court will decide to probe Israel, it will be activating a double standard and will be [pulling the rug out from under] the values it is trusted with protecting – protecting international law and human rights.”

  Other comments by Knesset members were in a similar vein and suggested no openness to cooperation with the court or acknowledgement of the ICC investigation as legitimate.

  The ICC prosecutor, Fatou Bensouda, announced her intention to launch an investigation in December 2019, but she also asked a panel of ICC judges to review certain jurisdictional issues. (The judges’ decision is expected “in due course.”) An active investigation of possible Israeli crimes would pose an immediate challenge for the Biden administration as it attempts to moderate the Trump team’s aggressive policy toward the court.

• The conflict in the Tigray region of Ethiopia is reverberating in the ranks of the country’s military deployed with multinational peacekeeping missions. Katharine Houreld of Reuters reports:

  Ethiopian peacekeepers in Somalia have disarmed between 200 and 300 of their ethnic Tigrayan colleagues over the past week as conflict rages in the northern Ethiopian region, four security and diplomatic sources told Reuters.

  The soldiers’ weapons were removed due to concerns over the their loyalty, the sources said, without detailing the process. They said they included bilateral and African Union troops.

• Bulgaria has nixed the start of accession talks between the European Union and North Macedonia. Via Bloomberg:

  Sofia wants guarantees that North Macedonia won’t claim the existence of its national minority within Bulgaria’s borders and that it has no territorial claims. It also wants EU accession documents to avoid the phrase “Macedonian language,” which it says derives from Bulgarian.

  Similar issues plagued Macedonia’s efforts to join NATO, with Greece as the most vocal opponent. That impasse was finally resolved, in large part through acceptance of the name North Macedonia, and the country formally joined the alliance earlier this year.

  Briefly noted:

  • During a session of the BRICS grouping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin talked up his country’s vaccine progress.

  • The International Monetary Fund has completed its 2020 review mission to Vietnam.

  • International observers from the United Nations and the Organization of American States are lining up to monitor Peru’s general election, scheduled for April.